The aim of this study was to build up a supplier selection model based on Bayesian method. Though a dynamic supplier selection process, the supplier history information was connected with the private information which was provided by suppliers. The Bayesian method was used to appraise and revise the ability of suppliers of achieving the target of purchase enterprise, then the supplier risk was analyzed. The results showed that the Bayesian method for evaluation and selection of packaging enterprise′s suppliers provided an effective way to avert risks, it could improving packaging enterprise′ s competitiveness. Supplier selection and evaluation model based on risk perspective is an important tool, which ensures that packaging enterprises appraise and select supplier on the premise of risk control.