The work aims to select Escherichia coli (E. coli) as the typical pathogen to study the effect of different plastic packaging materials (polyethylene, polypropylene, polyamide, polyethylene terephthalate), nutritional status and temperature and humidity on the growth of E. coli on the plastic packaging surface. The effects of various factors on the growth of E. coli on the packaging surface were analyzed by orthogonal experimental method. Focusing on the factors affecting the attachment of E. coli biofilm on the surface of different plastic materials, the model input parameters were determined by correlation analysis. Based on these factors, a prediction model for the number of E. coli colonies on the surface of different plastic materials was established with back propagation neural network (BP neural network). The temperature had the greatest effect on the growth of E. coli on the material, followed by the nutritional status, and the material and relative humidity had relatively small effect. Water contact angle, surface energy, roughness and nutrient broth contact angle of plastic materials were the main factors affecting E. coli biofilm attachment on material surfaces. The BP neural network prediction model for the number of E. coli colonies on the surface of plastic materials based on these factors had a goodness-of-fit R² of more than 0.95, which had a very high prediction accuracy. This study proposes key environmental control factors for the growth of E. coli on the surface of plastic packaging materials and provides a reference for the selection of food packaging materials, thus providing a theoretical basis for enhancing food safety.