The work aims to optimize the heat pump drying process and improve the quality of dried carrots. The effects of the initial drying temperature, drying temperature rise value and slice thickness on the heat pump drying characteristics of carrots were investigated, and the relations of these conditions on the effective moisture diffusion coefficient and drying activation energy were explored. A drying kinetic model that could accurately predict the changes in moisture content of carrots during heat pump drying was identified, thus the moisture migration pattern of carrots under different heat pump drying conditions could be predicted. The variation of drying rate was positively correlated with the variation of initial drying temperature and temperature rise value, and negatively correlated with slice thickness. The carrot heat pump drying process showed a decreasing rate, where the slice thickness had the greatest influence on the drying rate and the temperature rise value ∆θ had the least influence. Comparing analysis of four thin-layer drying models showed that the Page model could better describe the drying process and moisture migration of carrot heat pump, with an average error of 5.76% in the fitted values relative to the test values. Within the scope of this test, the effective water diffusion coefficient of carrots ranged from 3.040 1×10−10~7.155 5×10−10 m2/s. This coefficient showed an increasing trend as the drying temperature, the temperature rise value increased, and the slice thickness decreased. The Arrhenius equation showed that the activation energy of carrot drying under this test condition was 13.374 kJ/mol. In conclusion, the Page model can better predict the moisture migration pattern during carrot heat pump drying and thus optimize the heat pump drying process parameters. The research conducted in this paper provides a theoretical basis for the industrial production of carrot heat pump drying.