目的 解决在荔枝包装过程中风险源难于辨识及定量分析的难题。方法 提出一种基于霍尔三维因素空间和模糊故障树的风险识别与定量分析方法。构建荔枝包装的安全事件、时空结构（工位）、事故致因等3 个维度的因素集，通过矩阵之间的映射关系和计算分析得到风险基本事件集合。建立荔枝包装的故障树模型，并对风险基本事件进行专家问卷评价。采用梯形模糊数及左右模糊排序法将专家的评判语言转化为风险概率值。结果 经计算得到荔枝包装事故发生概率（0.0409）及风险基本事件的概率重要度。结论 提出了强化标准化建设，加大技术投入等防范风险事故发生的措施。

The work aims to solve the problem of difficult identification of risk sources and quantitative analysis in the process of litchi packaging. A method based on Hall three-dimensional space and fuzzy fault tree was proposed to solve risk identification and quantitative analysis problems. The factor sets of litchi packaging including such three dimensions as security incidents, space-time structures (work positions) and accident causes were constructed. The basic set of risk events was obtained through the mapping relation between the matrices and the calculation and analysis. The fault tree model of litchi packaging was established, and the expert questionnaire of basic risk events was evaluated. By using the trapezoidal fuzzy number and the left and right fuzzy sorting method, the expert's judgment language was transformed into the risk probability value. The importance of the probability of occurrence of litchi packaging accidents (0.0409) and the probability of the basic risk events was calculated. The measures such as strengthening the standardization construction and increasing investment in technology to prevent the occurrence of risk accidents were put forward.