目的 探究不同贮藏温度下小黄鱼的品质变化与货架期之间的关系，并建立货架期预测模型。方法 设计了273, 278, 283, 288, 293 K等5组不同温度下的贮藏实验，对小黄鱼的感官品质指标变化、持水率、pH值、色差（L值、b值）、挥发性盐基氮（TVB-N）、菌落总数和鲜度指标（K值）的变化进行测定分析；运用Arrhenius方程对菌落总数、TVB-N、K值与贮藏时间及贮藏温度建立动力学预测模型。结果 菌落总数、TVB-N和K值随着贮藏时间的延长而逐渐增加，感官品质随贮藏时间的延长而下降。结论 该模型所获得的货架期预测值准确率达到90%以上，可用于温度为273～293 K范围内小黄鱼剩余货架期的预测。

The work aims to study the relationship between small yellow croaker quality changes and shelf life at different temperatures and establish a shelf-life prediction model. Sensory evaluation, specific retention count, pH, L and b* value, total-volatile basic nitrogen (TVB-N) value and K value at different storage temperatures such as 273, 278, 283, 288, 293 K were analyzed. Based on the Arrhenius equation, kinetic predicting models which were about TVC, TVB-N and K value were established. It was shown that TVC, TVB-N and K value gradually increased and sensory quality of the yellow croaker deteriorated with the storage time prolonged. In conclusion, the accuracy rate of the predicting model is more than 90%, which could be used in the prediction of the remaining shelf life of small yellow croaker within the temperature ranges from 273 K to 293 K.