目的 鉴于壁厚控制的复杂性，建立基于有限元型坯尺寸的预测方法。方法 采用Workbench- POLYFLOW分析软件模拟型坯吹胀的过程，获得均匀的型坯尺寸吹胀成型的IBC内胆壁厚分布；分析型坯初始尺寸对制件最终壁厚分布的影响；确定制件壁厚的薄弱部位及其相对应的型坯位置；调整型坯轴线方向控制点的初始尺寸，获得改善制件最终壁厚的型坯轴线方向的初始壁厚曲线。结果 该曲线仿真壁厚极差为2.27 mm，通过大型中空成型机试生产，确定了型坯初始壁厚实验曲线，验证了预测型坯曲线的正确性。结论 该尺寸预测方法缩短了生产周期，准确性高，具有较好的实际应用价值。

The work aims to establish a parison dimension prediction method based on finite element analogy in view of the complexity of the wall thickness control. Numerical simulation of parison inflation was analyzed by software Workbench-POLYFLOW. The wall thickness distribution was obtained in the condition of uniform parison dimension. The effect of initial parison dimension on the final wall thickness distribution was analyzed. The IBC tank thin part and its corresponding parison position were located. The initial thickness of parison axial control points was adjusted to get the initial thickness curve in parison axis direction. The simulation results showed that the range of thickness was 2.27 mm. Empirical curve of parison was determined by trial production of large blow molding machine. The result verified the reliability of the method. In conclusion, the prediction method has short production cycle, high accuracy and good practical value.