目的 建立基于贝叶斯方法的供应商选择模型。方法 建立一个供应商选择动态过程， 将供应商的历史信息与供应商提供的自身信息联系起来； 利用贝叶斯方法对供应商达成采购企业目标的能力进行评判和修订， 并进一步评估供应商风险。结果 贝叶斯方法为包装企业评价和选择供应商提供了规避风险的有效手段， 可以提高包装企业的竞争力。结论 基于风险视角下的供应商选择与评价模型， 是保证包装企业在控制供应商风险的前提下对供应商进行选择评价的重要工具。

The aim of this study was to build up a supplier selection model based on Bayesian method. Though a dynamic supplier selection process, the supplier history information was connected with the private information which was provided by suppliers. The Bayesian method was used to appraise and revise the ability of suppliers of achieving the target of purchase enterprise, then the supplier risk was analyzed. The results showed that the Bayesian method for evaluation and selection of packaging enterprise′s suppliers provided an effective way to avert risks, it could improving packaging enterprise′ s competitiveness. Supplier selection and evaluation model based on risk perspective is an important tool, which ensures that packaging enterprises appraise and select supplier on the premise of risk control.