应用模糊故障树分析方法对军用气象物资包装可靠性进行了系统分析,简要介绍了模糊故障树分析方法的基本理论,利用专家判断和模糊集理论相结合的方法,评估了故障树底事件发生的模糊失效概率。 并以“TFS-1 通风干湿表包装冶为例,建立了包装系统的故障树,采用下行法求解了引起顶事件发生的最小割集,定量分析计算,得出模糊失效率为 0. 0705,同时计算了各底事件的重要度。 模糊故障树分析方法对于提高军用气象物资包装防护能力,确保物资装备质量,具有非常重要的意义。

Reliability of military meteorological materiel packaging was analyzed systematically using fuzzy fault tree analysis method. The basic theory of fuzzy fault tree was introduced. Fuzzy failure probability of fault tree bottom event was evaluated using expert estimation method combined with fuzzy sets theory. A packaging system fault tree was established with an instance of TFS-1 ventilated psychrometer packaging. Minimal cut sets causing top event happening was solved using descending method. The happening probability of top event was obtained to be 0. 0705 and the importance of bottom events was calculated. It was concluded that the method has important significance for improving the reliability of military meteorological materiel packaging and insuring materiel quality.