分别使用动力学方法、weibull危害分析法、BP人工神经网络法建立了预测美味酥饼干货架寿命的数学模型。3种模型性能的比较表明：BP人工神经网络预测结果更加准确、方便，使用BP人工神经网络模型的预测值与真实货架寿命值的相关性最高（R2=0.963 8）；并且BP模型能综合反映饼干的初始含水率、初始过氧化值，饼干包装材料的透氧率、透湿率以及贮存环境温湿度对其货架寿命的影响。

Shelf life prediction models of cookie were established using dynamic method, weibull hazard analysis method and BP artificial neural network method respectively. Comparison results of the three models showed that the prediction result of BP artificial neural network model is more accurate and convenience; the correlation coefficient of BP model, R2, between the outputs and targets is 0.963 8; BP neural network can incorporate various factors, including food product compositions, package properties, storage and logistics condition into a single model.