以真实纸塑包装-化学物-食品体系为依据，基于一维Fick扩散理论，给出了初始条件和边界条件，引入了纸和塑料涂层界面处的分配系数k-CP等，建立了迁移预测模型，得到了解析解。同时，实验研究了材料4015和3312中化学物1-羟基环己基苯基甲酮(184)和2,2-二甲氧基-苯基甲酮(651)，在60 ℃条件下向不同食品模拟物的迁移，并对实验值和模型预测值进行了对比分析。结果表明，污染物在塑料中的扩散系数选用最安全值时，模型预测值偏高于实测值，即模型预测值能最大限度地保证包装的使用安全性。

According to actual system of paper/plastic packaging-compound-food, diffusion equations were built based on one-dimensional Fick diffusion theory. Partition coefficient k-CP between paper and plastic was considered in the prediction model. Analytical solutions were obtained under specific initial condition〖JP2〗s and boundary conditions. In addition, the migration of migrant 1-hydroxycyclohexyl-1-phenyl ketone and benzyldimethyl ketal from paper-plastic materials 4015 and 3312 into different food simulant at 60 ℃ was studied. The experimental migration data based on experiment and calculated values based on the model were analyzed. The results showed that calculated values are higher than the experimental values. The higher calculated values were caused because of the “worst-case” values of DC. As far as this DC is concerned, this model can ensure the using safety of packaging.