目的 综合考虑环境、包装和产品三者之间的相互影响，预测全脂奶粉防潮包装的货架期。方法 应用等温吸湿模型表征全脂奶粉的吸湿特性，考虑温度对包装材料的透湿性和产品的吸湿特性等的影响，综合感官评定指标，建立基于温度、湿度影响的全脂奶粉防潮包装货架期预测模型。在相对湿度(70±1)%、温度(37±1)℃下，对不同水蒸气渗透性膜包装的全脂奶粉进行加速试验，验证所建模型的有效性。结果 GDW(Generalised D'Arcy and Watt)模型可有效表征全脂奶粉的吸湿特性，全脂奶粉的货架期临界水分含量(质量分数)为4.85%。在加速试验条件下，聚乙烯膜、铝塑复合膜袋装奶粉的货架期预测值分别为89、249 d，建立的全脂奶粉防潮包装货架期预测模型的准确性较高(相对偏差低于6%)。结论 温度对全脂奶粉的吸湿特性和包装材料的透湿性能的影响显著，建立温度适用性更广的防潮包装货架期预测模型，可为粉状乳制品货架期的研究及实际生产应用提供支撑。

The work aims to predict the shelf life of moisture-proof packaging for whole milk powder considering the interaction among environment, packaging and product. The isothermal hygroscopic model was used to characterize the hygroscopic characteristics of whole milk powder. Considering the effect of temperature on the moisture permeability of packaging materials and the hygroscopic characteristics of products, the shelf life prediction model of moisture-proof packaging of whole milk powder based on the effect of temperature and humidity was established combined with sensory evaluation indexes. At (70±1)% relative humidity and (37±1)℃, the accelerated tests were carried out on the whole milk powder packaged by film with different water vapor permeability to verify the validity of the model. GDW (Generalised D'Arcy and Watt) model could effectively characterize the moisture absorption characteristics of whole milk powder. The critical moisture content of whole milk powder during shelf life was 4.85%. Under accelerated test conditions, the predicted shelf life of milk powder packaged by polyethylene film and aluminum-plastic film was 89 days and 249 days respectively, and the prediction model of moisture-proof packaging for whole milk powder had high accuracy (relative deviation was less than 6%). Temperature has a great effect on the hygroscopic characteristics of whole milk powder and the moisture permeability of packaging materials, so the establishment of moisture-proof packaging shelf life prediction model with wider applicability of temperature can provide support for the shelf life research and practical application of powdery dairy products.