目的 探究陶瓷釉层中重金属铅溶出量的数学预测模型，建立重金属铅的快速溶出和检测方法。方法 通过溶出实验测得在不同温度、不同时间下铅的溶出量数据，然后分析铅溶出量与溶出时间、溶出温度的关系，找到其中规律，通过数据拟合构建铅溶出量对时间、温度的数学预测模型，从而实现铅的快速溶出与测定。结果 构建的铅溶出量预测模型对体积分数为4%的乙酸溶出实验数据进行拟合，得出相关系数（R2）大于0.98；用体积分数为8%，14%的乙酸浸泡液中铅的溶出量实验数据对模型进行验证，结果发现R2均大于0.98；用前5 h实验数据拟合的模型参数，对8~24 h的铅溶出量进行预测，预测结果与实验数据的Pearson相关系数皆大于0.99。结论 铅溶出量预测模型能够很好地拟合实验数据，通用性较强，可以预测出22 ℃下24 h时铅的溶出量，从而能够实现陶瓷釉层中铅的快速溶出与测定。

The work aims to explore the mathematical prediction model for the lead release in ceramic glaze and establish a rapid extraction and detection method for toxic metal lead. The data of release of lead extracted at different temperatures and at different time were measured by the extraction experiment. Then, the relationship among lead release, dissolution time and dissolution temperature was analyzed to find the law of lead release. A mathematical prediction model of the lead release versus time and temperature was established by fitting the experimental data, thus achieving the rapid extraction and determination of the lead. The established lead release prediction model fitted the release of lead extracted by the acetic acid with volume fraction of 4%, and the correlation coefficient (R2) was greater than 0.98. The proposed model was verified by the release of lead in acetic acid solution with volume fraction of 8% and 14%, and the results showed that R2 was greater than 0.98. The model parameters fitted with the experimental data for the first 5 h were used to predict the lead release for 8-24 h. Pearson correlation coefficient between the predicted results and the experimental data was greater than 0.99. The lead release prediction model can properly fit the experimental data and has strong universality. It can predict the lead release for 24 h at 22 ℃, so as to achieve rapid extraction and determination of the lead in ceramic glaze.