目的 建立冷鲜鸡供应链品质预测模型。方法 应用安全可靠度对冷鲜鸡供应链中的加工、装卸搬运、运输以及销售环节进行分析和研究，从成本和安全的视角出发，采用变权向量对不同情况下的冷鲜鸡供应链各环节进行动态优化，实现成本把控和品质保障的双平衡，并通过实例说明具体优化过程。结果 所建冷鲜鸡供应链品质预测模型是有效的，可通过某个权重参数的调节来实现冷鲜鸡供应链安全可靠度的有效分配。结论 该预测模型对冷鲜鸡政策的推广应用及保证食品安全具有一定的实际参考价值。

The work aims to establish the quality prediction model of cold-fresh chicken (CFC) supply chain. The links, such as CFC production, loading, unloading, handling, transportation and sale in the CFC supply chain were analyzed and studied by applying the safety reliability. From the view of cost and safety, the dynamic optimization of each link of CFC supply chain in different circumstances was carried out through variable weight vector to achieve the double balance of cost control and quality assurance. Moreover, the specific optimization process was illustrated by examples. The prediction model of CFC supply chain established was valid. The safety reliability of CFC supply chain could be effectively distributed by adjusting some weight parameter. The promotion and application of CFC policy and the guarantee of food safety have certain practical reference value.